Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary April 2024

April was a month of retreat for the equity market after a strong start to the year. MSCI world index fell by 4.85%. The retreat was spread across the market with MSCI world value index falling by 3,6% and MSCI world growth index falling by 4.1%.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary March 2024

The strong rally in equities market continued for the month of March. This is the fifth consecutive month of positive equity returns mainly due to the big tech companies, energy, and financial sector.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary February 2024

February was another strong month for equities market. The MSCI World Index was up 4.3%* for the month and the NASDAQ Index was up 6.2%*; the rally was driven by the technology sector once again with the Artificial Intelligence (AI) darling, Nvidia, seeing its share price increasing by 28.6% for the month of February.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary December 2023

The continuation of the rally in the equities market continued in December with the MSCI World Index concluding the year at 4.9%* for the month while the fund was up 5.2%*, outperforming the index for the month.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary October 2023

The equities market continued their decline for the third consecutive month due to uncertainty around interest rates and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The fund was down 1.75%, outperforming MSCI World which was down 2.9%. Growth outperformed value yet again- MSCI Value was down 3.4% and MSCI Growth down 2.4%.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary August 2023

Global equities fell in August, with MSCI World down 2.4%* while the fund was down 2.8%*. MSCI World Growth was down approximately 2%, outperforming MSCI Value which was down 2.7% for the period.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary July 2023

The market continued its rally from the previous month as the global market’s performance was spurred by lower inflation numbers in developed markets including the Eurozone and U.S. The fund was up 1.5%, underperforming MSCI World which was up 3.4% for the same period.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary June 2023

Markets rebounded in June after a period of volatility and uncertainty following the debt ceiling crisis in May. The fund performed well, with a 3.4% increase for the month. However, it lagged the MSCI World Index, which was up 6.1% during the same period.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary May 2023

The fund was down 0.95%, in line with MSCI World Index which was down 0.93% in US dollar terms. The best performers in the fund were Nova, Microsoft, and Apple, while the worst performers were Masimo (which has been sold out off the fund), Carlsberg, and Sea.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary March 2023

The fund was up 0.8% for the month, while MSCI World was up 3.2% with its performance coming from large cap. growth stocks. Growth outperformed value significantly with MSCI World Growth Index up 7% and MSCI World Value Index down 0.6%.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Jan 2023

Equities market rallied in January as the market has been optimistic because of signs that the inflation data is moderating, China’s economy reopening, the weakening of the dollar relative to last year and lower energy prices

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Nov 2022

The global equity markets strengthened again in November following market expectations that interest rates will ease in the upcoming months and this was also spurred by the bond market.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Oct 2022

Earnings season continued in October and Q3 earnings number weren’t as bad as the market expected again (but earnings growth has been relatively lower compared to previous comparable quarters).

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Sept 2022

September is generally known for being a tough month for equities e.g., just last year during September, the S&P 500 had its worst monthly performance since March 2020. This year is no different in terms of major indices declines during the month with S&P 500 declining by 9.2%, NASDAQ 100 down 10.5% and MXWO Index was down 9.3%.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Aug 2022

Performance was slightly disappointing following the strong gains the market experienced in July. The fund was down 2.1% for the month of August, outperforming the MSCI World Index which was down 4.3% for the month, bringing the year-to-date number (until 31 Aug. 2022) of the index to -17.5%. In summary, emerging markets outperformed developed markets with MSCI Emerging Market Index up 0.4% for the month.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary June 2022

There are only a few places for investors to hide in this downturn with both developed and emerging market equities ended in the red for the month of June. MSCI Emerging Market Index was down 6.6% for the month, slightly ahead of MSCI World which was down 8.6% for the month.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary May 2022

Market concerns are still the same with peak inflation being a major topic, monetary tightening, Covid and geopolitical tensions. As a result, performance over the past few months has been difficult but there was a bit of reprieve during May with performance being flat after the retreat we experienced in April.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary April 2022

Equity markets ended the month in the red, with MSCI World down 8.3%, MSCI Emerging Markets down 5.6% and Stoxx 600 Index down -5.4%. A recap of what’s been happening in the equities market during April- the start of earnings season, ongoing war in Ukraine, the expectations of the Fed hiking rates faster, continued supply chain disruptions and the impact of Covid lockdowns in China.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary March 2022

The MSCI World Index was up 2.8% for the month, offering a degree of recovery following two months of losses in the market. Overall, for the first quarter of the year, the major indices reported their biggest quarterly losses in the last two years. Furthermore, earnings season is also starting the second week of April, and this will be one of the main topics that will be spurring the market performance.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Feb 2022

Inflation and interest rate increases were one of the main topics dominating the beginning of 2022. Headlines are now been dominated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February is a humanitarian and economic crisis which has implications for the global economy.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Jan 2022

If we were to use one word to describe the beginning of the year in the equities market, it would be ‘turbulent’. The tech heavy market index, the Nasdaq Composite, recorded its worst January performance since 2008 amid the global financial crisis, with returns down c.9% in USD terms and down 12% in rand terms for the month.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund- Recap for 2021 and outlook for 2022

2021 was a strong year for the global equity markets with the U.S. equity markets leading the way; this was mainly driven by strong corporate earnings, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and optimism about the resilience of the global economy.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - October '21

Following a turbulent September where we saw the equity market having the worst performance during the year, in October we saw the market reaching new highs during the month as the market returned to the optimism they’ve been carrying during the year.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - September '21

The U.S. equity market had a tough month with the S&P 500 having its worst monthly performance since March 2020, when the pandemic hit us.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - August '21

The rotation between Value versus Growth stocks continued during the month, with Growth outperforming Value this time. The MSCI World Growth Index was up 3.3% for August while MSCI World Value Index was up 1.7%.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - June '21

Volatility came back to the market this month with the Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX Index) going over 20, reaching its highest point since May but the index has been decreasing since the spike.

Of fairy-tales and coins

Bill Maher makes his living as a comedian and political commentator. But like many others, he’s been drawn into the frenzied debate around cryptocurrency. How does he see it?

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One of the fundamental characteristics of Bitcoin that its champions find attractive is its boundedness; there will only ever be 21 million coins. The argument goes that the value of the cryptocurrency is, therefore, immune to devaluation by an increase in supply, unlike the US dollar

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Hot market trends must always be examined through a sceptical lens. It’s all too easy to take the broad acceptance of an idea and assume that the herd has done all the research and thinking necessary to make it bullet proof.

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The value of partnering with a business that understands wealth creation is that they can help you stay focused on what matters.

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The biggest threat to the global equity and fixed income asset classes is a steep inflationary kick in the US. Such a move would likely force the Fed to hike interest rates faster than the market currently expects.

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Bubbles are always a contentious issue. The one defining characteristic they all share is an excess of optimism. And there are certainly examples of this in the current landscape – Bitcoin, Tesla, GameStop, and the rise of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), all fit the exuberance bill.

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The direction of commodity prices remains important for many emerging market countries, South Africa included. For example, our mining industry generates more revenue when commodity prices are strong, which means our government collects more income tax, improving our country’s financial health (we in South Africa so desperately need).

Worldwide Fund Commentary - February '21

We saw the continuation of the equities rally in February, driven by similar factors as in January. Due to the optimism in the market as more people get vaccinated, fiscal stimulus from the US government as well as the Fed chairman stating that they will be keep interest rates low in order to support economic recovery.